Sunday, November 6, 2011

रे-पोस्टिंग सम स्तुफ्फ फ्रॉम माय न्फ्ल प्रेदिक्टोर ब्लॉग ठाट नो ओने एवर read

Because more people read this blog than any of my other blogs, I'm going to update y'all on my NFL probability model (I think only 3 people ever looked at the blog)

WAY back in July, I published this information:

What I most like about this particular probability model is that the DETROIT LIONS are rated a top-tier team, even though they finished with a 6-10 record. They make it to the top tier by virtue of winning their last four games in a row!!!

Tier 1 teams: win 70% of their games
Tier 2 teams: win 50% of their games
Tier 3 teams: win 25% of their games

Home Team NFL wins 55% of the time

T1 - T2 wins 80% of the time
T1 - T3 wins 80% of the time
T2 - T3 wins 70% of the time

Tier I teams: NYJ BAL PIT NEP
GBP ATL CHI DET NOS

Tier III teams: BUF CIN DEN CLE AZC CAR

REVISED TIER RANKINGS - BASED ON A NEW SEASON !! AND NOT SOME CRAPPY< SUCKIE OLD DATA

TIER I TEAMS: Green Bay, Detroit, San Fransisco, Baltimore, Cincinnati**,
Pittsburgh, New York**, New Orleans, Houston

TIER III TEAMS: Indiannapolis, St Louis, Arizona, Jacksonville, Seattle,
Miami*, Minnesota*, Carolina*, Washington


* Poised to move into Tier II - MN has had the lead at the half of four games, all of which they lost; they are inconsistent, and the quarterback situation has not been optimal -- I love the coaching troika of Lesley Frazier, Mike Singletary, Al Harris -- disclosure -- Mike singletary's sister-in-law lives right across the street from us and I've met him personally, and find him a rather remarkable and compelling human being - a true God-loving, Holy Man of God. I've also met Al Harris, and we BOTH thought, last year, that Detroit would be the sleeper team - note - I picked Detroit to be a top tier team as far back as last July!


** For whatever intuitive reasons, I think these records these teams have accumulated (and it is upon the REACORD, the wins, that I base my analysis - after all, it's whether or not you WIN that determines if you'll win again; not some fancy statistics drawn rather mundanely from a pool of still water. HOWEVER - Coughlin, the NYG coach is a tremendous tactician, and a proven winner, as is his QB, Eli Manning - when you have a great head coach in consonance with a great QB -- miracles can happen!

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