Much was written about the Osama bin Laden assassination in the past week. The larger-than-life arch-terrorist sparked the imaginations of many, and each in a different way. To the West he was a monster, even a bit of a Frankenstein who turned against his former patrons (lest we call them creators) of the United States Central Intelligence Agency and spread a radical ideology of hatred and violence with bone-chilling success.
To many Arabs - including the Palestinian militant movement Hamas - he was a "martyr" and a "holy warrior". To some, such as his former bodyguards, he was a charismatic Arsenal fan who quoted Charles de Gaulle and had a passion for natural remedies. [1] To others, for example to certain Iranian politicians, he was a "Zionist stooge". [2]
Similarly to most Americans, most Israelis on the street greeted the news of Bin Laden's death with sincere joy. After all, the late
al-Qaeda leader was one of the bitterest enemies of the Jewish state. A laconic "Finally!" was among the most common reactions. On a political level, the event is far more ambiguous, as it could herald a showdown between newly-empowered United States President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; nevertheless, no Israeli politician could afford to be seen as regretting it.
"The state of Israel shares the American nation's joy on this historic day," Netanyahu reportedly told Obama right after the operation. "This is a ringing victory for justice, freedom and the values shared by all democratic nations fighting determinedly shoulder to shoulder against terrorism."
Netanyahu certainly gained an argument once Obama pulled out the six-shooter. The Israeli prime minister was preaching against terrorism before any American administration became fully aware of its dangers; back in 1995, he even wrote a book on how to combat it. When he arrives in Washington in less than two weeks' time, we should look for "I told you so" undertones in his rhetoric. Before the raid on Bin Laden's Pakistan hideout, the American president, dubbed by some "no-drama Obama", was widely perceived as soft and conciliatory vis-a-vis terrorists and their state patrons.
The Pakistan raid speaks particularly poignantly to the policy of targeted assassinations against Palestinian militants that Israel has intermittently pursued for over a decade (indeed all the way since the 1972 Munich massacre by Black September terrorists). During the second intifada (Palestinian uprising), in particular, Israel killed hundreds of Palestinian terrorists and leaders in this way, drawing significant international condemnation (a case that stands out is the assassination of wheelchair-confined Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin in 2004, which also killed a number of bystanders).
Prominent American pro-Israeli commentator and lawyer Alan Dershowitz argues that the Bin Laden killing "vindicated" Israel's own targeted assassinations program. [3] An Israeli right-wing academic, Professor Rafi Israeli, even suggests a new strategy to the country's leaders:
When we are accused, smeared and slandered, we should dare to complain, openly compare our actions with those of others fighting terror, and initiate debates in the UN general assembly, Security Council, and Human Rights Council, even if we don't achieve immediately success. If we bombard them with our arguments and present evidence to all, ultimately something will be grasped by global public opinion, where we are used to retreat, apologize and defend ourselves. The argument that the killing will bring Israel's position closer to the US's is bolstered by other circumstances such as the effects of the Arab uprisings in general, and the intra-Palestinian reconciliation in particular. Israeli analysts have long argued that after a number of "friendly" dictators were exposed as unpopular tyrants, and, what is worse geopolitically, unstable partners, the American administration would have no choice but to recognize Israel as its only firm ally in the region.
After the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation accord, moreover, the White House has come under increasing pressure from the US Congress to cut aid to the Palestinian Authority and, in effect, to show stronger support for Israel. [4]
However, all this is only half the story. An ultimate nightmare scenario for mainstream Israeli observers involves the possibility of Obama winning a second term. With the wave of domestic excitement that the Bin Laden operation generated, that possibility just became a whole lot more possible.
While the president is in the middle of an election campaign, this narrative goes, and especially if he is perceived as losing, we cannot expect him to put sufficient pressure on Israel to make critical concessions to the Palestinians. If he gets re-elected, however, and can no longer seek another term, this is another story.
There is a long tradition of American presidents leaving more controversial policies for their second mandates - Jimmy Carter, for example, plotted to open up to Cuba and even to seek a comprehensive Middle East settlement in the second term that never materialized. Then-Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin narrowly managed to deflect the massive pressure during Carter's first term, by agreeing to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula and signing a separatist peace treaty with Egypt.
Obama has often been compared to Carter, and his current stint in office similarly involved a series of skirmishes with the Israeli prime minister (see my article US-Israeli spat plants seeds of crisis, Asia Times Online, March 23, 2010). Ultimately, he backed off (more specifically, he stopped insisting publicly on a full Israeli settlement construction halt), but should he win another term, this will most likely prove only a tactical retreat.
It is unclear if a single bold stroke, such as the Bin Laden operation, will be enough to reverse the quagmire in which the US finds itself in in the Middle East. With the new popularity come also greater expectations, and Obama has not been handling the Arab revolutions - let alone the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - in a very coherent way so far. In a particularly lucid analysis in Israeli daily Ha'aretz, Ari Shavit predicts that Egypt will implode before the year is over, and outlines four major challenges facing Obama in the Middle East.
"The summer of 2011 is the summer of Barack Hussein Obama," Shavit concludes. "If he does not stabilize the Middle East this summer, a regional avalanche will take place by summer's end. Obama will bear personal responsibility if the Arab spring turns into a cold and bleak winter." [5]
Things look a bit murky right now, even as American voters have been known to re-elect widely unpopular presidents who make major foreign policy blunders (what better proof of that than George W Bush's re-election in 2004). In any case, Obama enjoys at least a temporary position of strength, and some prominent analysts speculate that renewed American pressure on Netanyahu will already start to manifest itself during the latter's upcoming trip to Washington. In what can be interpreted as an early evasive maneuver, the Israeli prime minister recently announced that he might even support a Palestinian state "under the right conditions". [6]
"During his visit to Washington in less than three weeks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet an American administration which is credited by the free world with the killing of the arch terrorist Osama bin Laden," a recent Ha'aretz editorial reads. "... In his address before congress, after congratulating President Obama on his important achievement against terrorism, Netanyahu must present a serious and credible Israeli peace initiative."
Another, seemingly less-related front that is silently heating up in the region is the standoff with Iran. It is unclear that Bin Laden's assassination means much to the Israeli-Iranian confrontation in particular, even though Netanyahu attempted to ride that wave by announcing that following the terrorist's demise, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was "the biggest threat to peace in the world". [7] Moreover, as David Goldman of Asia Times Online has argued, the assassination probably has a strong bearing on the Iranian-Saudi Arabian front. [8]
There has been some renewed, if muted, debate about a possible Israeli attack on Iran recently, even though most analysts don't see it as a realistic possibility. On Friday, influential former Mossad chief Meir Dagan came out publicly against such a strike, calling it "the stupidest thing I have ever heard". [9]
Another influential Israeli official, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, also made recent comments to the effect that he did not believe Iran would ever drop a nuclear bomb on Israel. Prior to these comments, Barak was perceived as an ardent hawk on Iran.
Despite the apparent lack of appetite of the Israeli leadership for military action against the Islamic Republic, and despite the staggering logistical challenges such an operation would pose, some analysts contend that practically all daring Israeli operations in the past have been preceded by campaigns of mixed messages and disinformation. Against the background of deepening political strife inside Iran, [10] it would make sense for any foreign power that wishes to intervene to at least wait a while; nevertheless, it is important to at least consider the possibility that the Bin Laden's assassination is a marker of a broader American policy change, perhaps including in some way Iran.
Overall, the much-publicized American commando raid in Pakistan will most likely contribute significantly to the overall impact of the Arab revolts on Israeli foreign policy. Its impact, however, will be mixed, and carries dangers as well as opportunities. For now, Netanyahu is keeping his cards close to his chest, and the earliest certain clue that we can expect will come during his speech before the US Congress on May 20.
Notes
1. 'Bin Laden was an Arsenal fan, quoted de Gaulle', Jerusalem Post, May 4, 2011.
2. 'Bin Laden Israel's stooge against Islam', Press TV, May 3, 2011.
3. Targeted Killing Vindicated, Huffington Post, May 2, 2011.
4. Democrat senators to Obama: Cut PA aid, Ynetnews, May 7, 2011.
5. With bin Laden dead, Obama has to turn to the Mideast, Ha’aretz, May 4, 2011.
6. Netanyahu: Israel could support Palestinian state before September under right conditions, Ha’aretz, May 5, 2011.
7. With bin Laden dead, Iran is Israel's greatest fear, PM says, CNN, May 5, 2011.
8. Osama a casualty of the Arab revolt, Asia Times Online, May 2, 2011.
9. Former Mossad chief: Israel air strike on Iran 'stupidest thing I have ever heard', Ha’aretz, May 7, 2011.
10. Ahmadinejad row with Khamenei intensifies, al-Jazeera, May 5, 2011.
Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.
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