USDA reports big drop in Iowa corn conditions
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Categories: Green Fields: Agriculture and Alternative Energy
FILE -Ron Gordon shows off an early ear of corn from his fields near Creston in late June. His corn was some of Iowa’s earliest to tassel. (Justin Hayworth/The Des Moines Register)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday that the percentage of Iowa’s corn crop rated good to excellent fell from 62 percent a week ago to 46 percent through Sunday as a week of 100-degree temperatures and no rainfall took its toll.
A year ago 82 percent of Iowa’s corn crop was rated good to excellent.
Nationally, just 40 percent of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, compared to 48 percent last week.
Conditions were similar for soybeans. Iowa’s crop is rated 48 percent good to excellent, down from 59 percent last week and 80 percent this week last year. Nationally the crop was rated 38 percent good to e xc ellent compared with 45 percent a week ago and 66 percent last year.
Among other major soybean producers, Illinois reported 20 percent good to excellent; Indiana 14 percent; Missouri 13 percent; Nebraska 41 percent; Ohio 27 percent and Minnesota 72 percent.
The USDA said “triple digit temperatures and little if any rainfall in most areas of the State caused crop conditions to decline significantly during the week. Iowa farmers not only faced hot, dry conditions but insect populations are on the rise with many fields being treated.”
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey said “the hot dry weather we experienced last week was a real challenge and showed as the condition of both the corn and soybean crop deteriorated.”
Iowa State University agronomist Roger Elmore said Monday that the dry, hot weather last week cut Iowa’s corn yield potential by as much as 9 percent. Iowa normally produces a yield about ten percent higher than the national average. In 2011 Iowa’s nation-leading yield was 172 bushels per acre.
“We’ll lose more yield this week if it doesn’t rain, and there’s no rain in the forecast,” Elmore said. Agronomists note that corn pollinates best when temperatures are in the upper 80s during the day and high 60s overnight.
But corn needs ample moisture under any temperature conditions, and Iowa has been lacking in rainfall this year. Nature played a cruel trick on Iowa farmers this year. Because of dry, warm condiltions in late Marchand early April, much of the crop was planted early.
The USDA said that 48 percent of Iowa’s corn had silked, or ready for pollination, as of Sunday. Normally on July 8, just 7 percent of the corn would have been silked. That means that a larger percentage of Iowa’s corn was vulnerable to the hot weather last week during the crucial pollination stage.
On the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, corn closed up 37 cents per bushel to $7.30 and soybeans rose 42 cents to $15.47. Corn prices have shot up 45 percent since early June as the scope of the drought, now considered the worst since 1988, has become apparent.
State Climatologist Harry Hillaker said “the statewide average precipitation was .02 inch while normal for the week is 1.07 inches. This was Iowa’s driest week in 21 weeks (early February).”
Arlan Suderman of Farm Futures Magazine said Monday “traders expect USDA to peg the corn crop at about 154 bushels per acre on Wednesday morning, but they’ve priced in a crop in the mid-140s.”
Corn prices are up 35 percent over the past month on fears that the heat wave and drought that has hit Iowa and the rest of the Midwest will cut yields well below the 165 bushels per acre for corn and 44 bushels per acre for soybeans forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in late March.
Soybeans prices have surged similar to corn because domestic stocks, as reported by the USDA, are expected to dip to 15-year lows by the end of summer.
Failure to achieve yields predicted by the USDA for both corn and soybeans will continue the tight corn surpluses that have led to record prices since mid-2010.
On Friday the consulting firm Informa predicted a corn yield of 153 bushels per acre nationally and 178 bushels per acre in Iowa.
Some other forecasts, most notably Farm Futures magazine, have suggested the national yield could dip below 150 bushels per acre because of heat damage done to the crop during the sensitive pollination season in early July.
Last year the U.S. yield was 148 bushels per acre. Iowa’s nation-leading yield was 172 bushels per acre.
Des Moines commodity broker Tomm Pfitzenmaier said traders are comparing this year’s drought to 1988, considered the last major drought to hit the Corn Belt.
“The trade is now assuming at least a 10 percent yield reduction off of trend line and that would put the yield at around 148 bu/acre,” said Pfitzenmaier.
While Iowa and the rest of the Midwest Corn Belt are getting some relief from last week’s 100-degree heat, little or no rain is in the seven-day forecast.
Since last fall, except for a burst of precipitation in April, Iowa has experienced consistent rainfall below average. Just 12 percent of Iowa’s soils now are rated moisture-sufficient. A year ago 80 percent of Iowa’s soil was rated adequate in moisture.
The situation is made dire for Iowa’s 41 ethanol plants. Walt Wendland, chief executive officer of Golden Grain Energy of Mason City, said Iowa has not yet seen a widespread slowdown or closing of ethanol plants, despite consistently negative margins since the beginning of the year after the 45-cents per gallon tax credit lapsed.
But he said conditions have changed.
“Last year margins were so good and demand high that we were putting out all the ethanol we could,” Wendland said. “Now we’re just trying to see how much more efficient we can be.”
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